„How Dangerous Is The Month Of October?“ – Think beyond the obvious
In meinem Kommentar für die WirtschaftsWoche Online diskutiere ich heute die Gefahren des Oktobers. Hier ergänzend dazu das passende Chart:
- „The following chart shows the twenty largest one-day declines in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Crashes that occurred in October are highlighted in red.“ – bto: nicht schlecht. Da kommen einige zusammen.
- „The largest one-day declines in the DJIA in history – almost half of the crash waves occurred in October, including the two largest ever recorded on 19 Oct. 1987 and 28 Oct. 1929. The fourth largest decline happened on 29 Oct. 1929 hence these two days of consecutive declines were actually worse than the record one-day plunge in 1987. 9 of the 20 strongest one-day declines happened in October. That is an extremely disproportionate frequency. In other words, October has a strong tendency to deliver negative surprises to stock market investors in the form of sudden crashes.“ – bto: noch drei Wochen …